Wednesday, 9 September 2015

Do you know as much as a bookie?

I got this message, source identified only as "bookie odds".

Make of it what you will.

Bookies' Predictions
Ang Mo Kio GRC : PAP-79.4% , RP-20.6% (PAP wins)
Sembawang GRC : PAP-58.4% , NSP-41.6% (PAP wins) 
Bishan- Toa Payoh GRC : PAP-60.6% , SPP-39.4% (PAP wins)
Pasir Ris -Punggol GRC : PAP-77.4% , SDA-22.6% (PAP wins)
Aljunied GRC : WP-60.9% , PAP-39.1% (WP wins)

Jurong GRC : PAP-68.7% , SingFirst-31.3% (PAP wins) 
Marine Parade GRC : PAP-54.2% , WP-45.8% (PAP wins)
Nee Soon GRC : PAP-60.3% , WP-39.7% (PAP wins)
Tampines GRC : PAP-74.4% , NSP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Tanjong Pagar GRC : PAP-61.2% , SingFirst-38.8% (PAP wins)
Chua Chu Kang GRC : PAP-71.8% , PPP-28.2% (PAP wins)
East Coast GRC : PAP-46.2% , WP-53.8% (WP wins)
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC : PAP-58.7% , SDP-41.3% (PAP wins)
West Coast GRC : PAP-68.6% , RP-31.4% (PAP wins)
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC : PAP-70.2% , SDP-29.8% (PAP wins)
Jalan Besar GRC : PAP-58.1% , WP-41.9% (PAP wins)
 Radin Mas SMC : PAP-67.2% , RP-31.2% , Independent-1.6% ( PAP wins ) 
Bukit Batok SMC : PAP-62.9% , SDP-36.9% , Independent-0.2%  (PAP wins ) 
MacPherson SMC : PAP-59.3% , WP-39.6% , NSP-1.1%  (PAP wins)
Hong Kah North SMC : PAP-61.3% , SPP-38.7% (PAP wins) 
Bukit Panjang SMC : PAP-65.1% , SDP-34.9% (PAP wins) 
Fengshan SMC : PAP-45.8% , WP-54.2% (WP wins)
Hougang SMC : WP-65.4% , PAP-34.6% (WP wins)
Mountbatten SMC : PAP-56.4% , SPP-43.6% (PAP wins)
Pioneer SMC : PAP-67.6% , NSP-32.4% (PAP wins)
Potong Pasir SMC : PAP-45.1% , SPP-54.9% (SPP wins)
Punggol East SMC : WP-66.9% , PAP-33.1% (WP wins)
Sengkang West SMC : PAP-45.8% , WP-54.2% (WP wins)
Yuhua SMC : PAP-63.9% , SDP-36.1% (PAP wins)
If this is accurate...

As I expected, PAP will hold MacPherson, Marine Parade, Nee Soon, and Jalan Besar.

And lose East Coast and Fengshan.

What I did not predict or expect is for WP to win Sengkang West.

I also do not expect SPP to take back Potong Pasir. And by such an improvement.

Overall, the bookies odds give PAP quite a boost in percentage, with 5 GRCs with over 70% of votes to PAP. I do not sense such a shift in mood towards the PAP.

On the other hand, the bookies are favouring SPP in Potong Pasir. Again, I do not sense that.

Then again, my senses could be way off.

Overall, the assessment seems to be that NSP will do poorly. Or not as well as 2011. Which is a reasonable conclusion.

But these are just bookie odds. But then again, they do make a living from being accurate about these things. If these REALLY ARE odds from some bookie. (Don't ask me how to gamble on these predictions from the bookies).

To be fair, these are just numbers and we have no way of knowing how the figures were arrived at, or how reliable these figures are.

We'll know on Saturday.

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